What Will Impact Industrial Property in 2022?
Industrial property has been one of the best performers over the past two years and its record run should continue, according to a leading expert.
Herron Todd White Commercial Director David Walsh said he expects industrial property to withstand any pressure that comes from higher interest rates.
“Substantive falls in property values in response to increased interest rates are unlikely, but market activity could certainly ease off from its heady highs, with yields stabilising closer to current levels,” Mr Walsh said. “I also think some types of industrial property will perform far better than others.”
“The market – both for rentals and investment – will simply be more discerning in 2022.” Mr Walsh said higher fuel prices will also likely benefit certain industrial assets. “Facilities closer to population centres should benefit.”
“If businesses can reduce the cost of moving goods from their warehousing to their customer base by being physically closer to consumers, then they’ll be willing to pay a premium for that. Therefore, infill style industrial should do well. Prime locations within easy reach of population centres should remain strong. Even better if they have easy access to major transport corridors. These properties can expect rents to rise and yields to hold firm.”
Land scarcity will also be an important factor in the next 12 months according to Mr Walsh. “There’s simply too little land to satisfy current demand,” he said. “Land take-up in the last 12 months has been extremely strong, as has price growth with some locations achieving eye-watering rates per square metre. This story is evident across all major cities and regions.”
“But look at that in conjunction with the other big constraint – the one around construction – and you can see why I remain reasonably bullish about industrial in 2022.” Mr Walsh said high construction costs, because of material and labour, will help keep pressure on established property.
“What I am certain of is that with these two pieces of the construction pie challenging the feasibility of projects, we are likely to see a third piece – rents – experience a long-awaited increase,” he said.
“So, while the overall view is that markets may be a little more challenged in 2022, well-chosen assets will continue to be a savvy investment.”